information leads people to choose tasks that raise expected output, however extreme overconfidence leads people to undertake … tasks that are excessively challenging. Consistent with our results, psychologists have found that moderate overconfidence …

emphasizing variables derived from formal decision theory. In a data set on trainee truckers in a large US company, we provide a … comparing the predictive power of measurements derived from personality theory and decision theory for several individual …. Further, decision theory and personality variables are meaningfully related. For example, we confirm that cognitive ability …

fallacy, conservatism in updating probabilities, and overconfidence. Test scores are also significantly related to subjects …

information leads people to choose tasks that raise expected output, however extreme overconfidence leads people to undertake … tasks that are excessively challenging. Consistent with our results, psychologists have found that moderate overconfidence …

relatively. We test three different theories about observed relative overconfidence. The first theory notes that simple … asymmetry produces overconfidence (Kőszegi, 2006; Weinberg, 2006). We test an important specific prediction of these models … might make this belief worse. Our data also reject this prediction. The third theory is that overconfidence is induced by …

more likely to lower educational standards when an informal, more informative recruitment channel is used, so we conclude …