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This paper investigates collective denial and willful blindness in groups, organizations and markets. Agents with anticipatory preferences, linked through an interaction structure, choose how to interpret and recall public signals about future prospects. Wishful thinking (denial of bad news) is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010293122
A tradition from Knight (1921) argues that more risk tolerant individuals are more likely to become entrepreneurs, but perform worse. We test these predictions with two risk tolerance proxies: stock market participation and personal leverage. Using investment data for 400,000 individuals, we...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010293212
-economic status and poorer health are relatively less likely to realize how unhealthy they are and this overconfidence is associated …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011401757
labor market trajectories. Using an experiment to derive students' levels of overconfidence, and preferences for … and overconfidence, but not risk aversion, is systematically related with expectations about future earnings: individuals … in overconfidence and competitiveness explain about 18% of the gender gap in earnings expectations. These experimental …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010328926
: overconfidence and uncertainty about performance. Since task-based goal setting is low-cost, scaleable and logistically simple, we …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011584598
lead to a negative relationship between performance and overestimation, even if skill and overconfidence are unrelated. To … clarify the role of measurement error, we restate the Dunning Kruger effect in terms of skill and overconfidence. We show that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011653339
value of overconfidence). We present first empirical evidence on the existence of a motivation value of absolute … overconfidence that many microeconomic models build on. Moreover, we document that debiasing information increases the accuracy of … offer a novel strategy for identifying significant overconfidence at the individual level. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011873568
additional individual characteristics such as subjects' risk attitudes, measures of self-assessment and overconfidence, social … overconfidence affect worker self-selection, in particular into tournaments. Fourth, risk averse workers prefer fixed payments and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010267618
information leads people to choose tasks that raise expected output, however extreme overconfidence leads people to undertake … tasks that are excessively challenging. Consistent with our results, psychologists have found that moderate overconfidence …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010269111
relatively. We test three different theories about observed relative overconfidence. The first theory notes that simple … asymmetry produces overconfidence (Kőszegi, 2006; Weinberg, 2006). We test an important specific prediction of these models … might make this belief worse. Our data also reject this prediction. The third theory is that overconfidence is induced by …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010269888