Any measure of unobserved inflation uncertainty relies on specific assumptions which are most likely not fulfilled completely. This calls into question whether an individual measure delivers a reliable signal. To reduce idiosyncratic measurement error, we propose using common information...

In this paper we evaluate the forecasting performance of employmentexpectations for employment growth in 15 European states. Our data coverthe period from the first quarter 1998 to the fourth quarter 2012. With in-sampleanalyses and pseudo out-of-sample exercises, we find that for most of the...

In this paper, we ask whether it is possible to forecast gross value-added (GVA) and its sectoral subcomponents at the regional level. With an autoregressive distributed lagmodel we forecast total and sectoral GVA for one German state (Saxony) with more than 300 indicators from different...

Solid budgets serve as important quality signals for the electorate. Politicians mighttherefore face an incentive to influence tax revenue forecasts, which are widely regardedas a key element for budget setups. Looking at the time period from 1996 to 2012, inthis study we systematically analyze...

This paper investigates whether localization economies as brought forward by Marshall(1890) or urbanization economies as mentioned by Jacobs (1970) are more decisive forregional gross value added per capita. Our novel approach is to explicitly allow forinterdependencies between these two...

In this study, we evaluate whether survey-based indicators produce lower forecast errorsfor export growth than indicators obtained from hard data such as price and costcompetitiveness measures. Our pseudo out-of-sample analyses and forecastencompassingtests reveal that survey-based indicators...