Economists are currently divided over the question of what represents a more immediate threat to the global economy - deflation or excessive infl ation. Using stochastic simulations, this article extrapolates the likely inflation rates in individual European countries and the euro area as a...

In the centrally planned economies of Eastern Europe, monetary policy played a subordinate role, there were no capital-market institutions and the banking system was single-tier. All this has to be changed in the transition to a market economy. The example of Hungary, which abolished the...