This paper examines how well forecasters can predict the future time path of (policy-determined) short-term interest rates. Most prior work has been done using U.S. data; in this exercise we use forecasts made for New Zealand by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) and those derived from money...

This paper applies a macroeconomic-based model for estimating probabilities of default. The first part of the paper focuses on the relation between macroeconomic variables and the default behavior of Dutch firms. A convincing relationship with GDP growth and oil price and, to a lesser extent,...

Recent treatments of the issue of a zero floor on nominal interest rates have been subject to some important methodological limitations. These include the assumption of perfect foresight or the introduction of the zero lower bound as an initial condition or a constraint on the variance of the...

There are many indications that formal methods are not used to their full potential by central banks today. In this paper, using data from Sweden, we demonstrate how BVAR and DSGE models can be used to shed light on questions that policymakers deal with in practice. We compare the forecast...

Over the past few years, the Federal Reserve’s use of unconventional monetary policy tools has received a vast amount of public attention, from discussing how these asset purchases have put downward pressure on longer-term interest rates and thus supported economic activity to evaluating the...

Modern policy analysis makes extensive use of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. These models differ significantly from earlier generations of large-scale econometric models. I review what I see as major progress in the ability of economists to conduct model-based policy...

This paper investigates the conduct of monetary and fiscal policy in the post-ERM period in the United Kingdom. Using a simple DSGE New Keynesian model of non-cooperative monetary and fiscal policy interactions under fiscal intraperiod leadership, we demonstrate that the past policy in the...

This paper assesses the impact of the various “unconventional” U.S. Federal Reserve policies and fiscal policies, introduced during the 2007–09 financial crisis period, on credit market spreads. I also examine the impact of the “conventional” monetary policy stance, defined as the...

Several aspects of the difficulties of policy at the zero lower bound are discussed: The difficulty of credible commitment to higher future inflation, as most New Keynesian models imply is necessary; the need for fiscal and monetary policy coordination; and the pitfalls in the taking of...

The United States introduced several programs in response to the financial crisis. We examine responses involving Treasury debt—the Term Securities Lending Facility (TSLF), Supplementary Financing Program (SFP), Treasury issuance, open-market operations—and associated impacts on...