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Macromodel Estimation for the Romanian "Pre-Accession Economic Programme"*

Dobrescu, Emilian - In: Journal for Economic Forecasting (2002) 5, pp. 5-38

Development and Forecasting and the National Bank of Romania in order to update the "Pre-Accession Economic Programme") …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005248485

MACROECONOMIC ESTIMATIONS FOR THE ROMANIAN “PRE-ACCESSION ECONOMIC PROGRAM” (THE 2003 VERSION)

Dobrescu, Emilian - In: Journal for Economic Forecasting (2003) 4, pp. 23-49

The first section attempts to define the main problems, taking into account that the productive performance of the Romanian economy is affected by a double constraint – both from a supply side and the from the demand side. Four essential factors are identified on the supply side: the existence...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005248501

Introduction into Macroeconomic Modeling Foundations*

Dobrescu, Emilian - In: Journal for Economic Forecasting (2002) 5, pp. 39-88

The current paper attempts to describe the labor market parameter dynamics using a different method, namely the semi-Markovian processes. This method allows for the labor market study without the large fluctuations that occurred at a certain moment in time impinging upon the results of the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005827561

POSSIBLE EVOLUTIONS OF THE ROMANIAN ECONOMY (MACROMODEL ESTIMATIONS)

Dobrescu, Emilian - In: Journal for Economic Forecasting (2003) 5, pp. 32-63

This article presents alternative scenarios of macroeconomic dynamics for Romania. The author starts by presenting the structure of the model used for simulations. Two scenarios are developed for the 2003-2010 period. The first one, the desirable scenario, embodies performances envisaged in the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005827602

MACROMODEL ESTIMATIONS FOR THE UPDATED 2004 VERSION OF THE ROMANIAN PRE-ACCESSION ECONOMIC PROGRAMME - WORKING PAPER*

Dobrescu, Emilian - In: Journal for Economic Forecasting 2 (2005) 1, pp. 5-29

with similar forecasting schemes (Dobrescu 2002a, 2002c, 2003, 2004). However, the present estimations slightly modify the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005612211

PRINCIPAL COMPONENTS MODEL OF THE ROMANIAN ECONOMY. GDP – PRODUCTION SIDE*

Klein, Lawrence R.; Roudoi, Andrei; Eskin, Vladimir; … - In: Journal for Economic Forecasting 1 (2004) 5, pp. 52-66

The paper estimates a medium-term forecasting model used to generate short-term series of the quarterly GDP. The GDP … of this project were Global Insight (former DRI-WEFA – USA), the Institute of Economic Forecasting (Romania) and the … Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-term Economic Forecasting (Russian Federation). This publication was made …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005827562

Macromodel Simulations for the Romanian Economy

Dobrescu, Emilian - In: Journal for Economic Forecasting (2010) 2, pp. 7-28

other and also to the officially accepted forecasting documents. Some former similar predictions (anticipating more …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008492979

MEDIUM-RUN SCENARIOS OF THE ROMANIAN ECONOMY

Dobrescu, Emilian - In: Journal for Economic Forecasting (2000) 1, pp. 8-28

The paper presents two scenarios, an inertial scenario and a restructuring scenario based on the last version of the author’s macromodel (Dobrescu 2000). The forecasts were made over a five-six years period and the indicators used were total population, population over 15 years, labour force,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005612296

Updating the Romanian Economic Macromodel

Dobrescu, Emilian - In: Journal for Economic Forecasting (2013) 4, pp. 5-31

. Some supplementary requests of the government agencies which use this forecasting tool were also included. The first …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010734660

Attempting to Quantify the Accuracy of Complex Macroeconomic Forecasts

Dobrescu, Emilian - In: Journal for Economic Forecasting (2014) 4, pp. 5-21

Based on the 2012 Version of the Romanian Macromodel, the first section of this paper discusses the evolution of the Romanian economy in 2014. The previous simulations were revised taking into account the changes in the internal and external socio-economic conjuncture or in the available...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011122630