The new (2002) version of the "Pre-Accession Economic Program" has to take into account both the experience accumulated in the implementation of its previous (2001) form, and the changes occurred during 2001-2002 in the domestic and international environment, which have affected the Romanian...

The first section attempts to define the main problems, taking into account that the productive performance of the Romanian economy is affected by a double constraint – both from a supply side and the from the demand side. Four essential factors are identified on the supply side: the existence...

This article presents alternative scenarios of macroeconomic dynamics for Romania. The author starts by presenting the structure of the model used for simulations. Two scenarios are developed for the 2003-2010 period. The first one, the desirable scenario, embodies performances envisaged in the...

The purpose of this paper is to present a Romanian CGE model and to test it in drafting a macroeconomic scenario towards 2010. The authors review the main assumptions underlying the CGE model. They calibrate the model, using data from National Accounts for the year 2002. They find that the...

Using a small-size RMSM model, the authors simulate development alternatives in the medium run, revealing their implications upon the Romanian economy. The reference scenario is characterized by a moderate economic growth, based on the increase in the investements. Both imports exports are...

Macroeconomic forecasts are often based on the interaction between econometric models and experts. A forecast that is based only on an econometric model is replicable and may be unbiased, whereas a forecast that is not based only on an econometric model, but also incorporates expert intuition,...

As asserted in standard literature, there is an implicit circular relationship between the productivity growth and the potential level of production (and, consequently, the estimation of the natural rate of unemployment is also altered). In order to avoid such emerging impediment in any...

We employ duration-dependent Markov-switching vector auto-regression (DDMSVAR) methodology to construct an economic cycle model for an emerging economy. By modifying the software codes for DDMSVAR methodology written by Pelagatti (2003), we show how to estimate the economic cycles in an emerging...

The study comprises previsional estimates for the Romanian economy in 2001 using the "Dobrescu" macromodel of the Romanian transition economy. The main economic indicators are monthly estimated for 2001 simulating a Rational Scenario and a Quasi-Lax Scenario. The indicators are: gross domestic...

The study is based on the 2000 version of the Romanian economy macromodel, amended only by updating the inflation econometric function. The paper presents the estimations for 2001, and, having in view the "Pre-Accession Economic Programme" the author presents two scenarios (a desirable,...