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POSSIBLE EVOLUTIONS OF THE ROMANIAN ECONOMY (MACROMODEL ESTIMATIONS)

Dobrescu, Emilian - In: Journal for Economic Forecasting (2003) 5, pp. 32-63

This article presents alternative scenarios of macroeconomic dynamics for Romania. The author starts by presenting the structure of the model used for simulations. Two scenarios are developed for the 2003-2010 period. The first one, the desirable scenario, embodies performances envisaged in the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005827602

THE ROMANIAN GROWTH POTENTIAL – A CGE ANALYSIS

Croitoru, Lucian; Tarhoaca, Cornel - In: Journal for Economic Forecasting (2003) 4, pp. 7-22

The purpose of this paper is to present a Romanian CGE model and to test it in drafting a macroeconomic scenario towards 2010. The authors review the main assumptions underlying the CGE model. They calibrate the model, using data from National Accounts for the year 2002. They find that the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005772654

MULTI - ANNUAL SCENARIOS USING A SMALL – SIZED RMSM TYPE OF MODEL IN ORDER TO FORECAST THE MAIN MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS IN ROMANIA

Nicolae, Mariana; Albu, Lucian Liviu; Andrei, Dalina; … - In: Journal for Economic Forecasting (2003) 5, pp. 25-31

Using a small-size RMSM model, the authors simulate development alternatives in the medium run, revealing their implications upon the Romanian economy. The reference scenario is characterized by a moderate economic growth, based on the increase in the investements. Both imports exports are...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005272632

Macromodel Estimation for the Romanian "Pre-Accession Economic Programme"*

Dobrescu, Emilian - In: Journal for Economic Forecasting (2002) 5, pp. 5-38

Development and Forecasting and the National Bank of Romania in order to update the "Pre-Accession Economic Programme") …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005248485

MACROECONOMIC ESTIMATIONS FOR THE ROMANIAN “PRE-ACCESSION ECONOMIC PROGRAM” (THE 2003 VERSION)

Dobrescu, Emilian - In: Journal for Economic Forecasting (2003) 4, pp. 23-49

The first section attempts to define the main problems, taking into account that the productive performance of the Romanian economy is affected by a double constraint – both from a supply side and the from the demand side. Four essential factors are identified on the supply side: the existence...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005248501

Examples of New Macroeconomic Modelling and Simulation Techniques: How They Could Improve Decisions and Public Perception

Albu, Lucian Liviu; Gorun, Adrian - In: Journal for Economic Forecasting (2010) 5, pp. 7-16

Macroeconomic forecasting started around the Second World War as a way to test economic theories, but it also has a …. During the last decades, the economic forecasting and macroeconomic modelling have taken on an increasingly important role in … presenting synthetically the last trends in forecasting and macroeconomic modelling. The next part is devoted to show how new …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009321269

PREVISIONAL ESTIMATES OF THE ROMANIAN ECONOMY IN 2001 - THE "DOBRESCU" MACROMODEL OF THE ROMANIAN TRANSITION ECONOMY

Scutaru, Cornelia - In: Journal for Economic Forecasting (2002) 2, pp. 30-38

The study comprises previsional estimates for the Romanian economy in 2001 using the "Dobrescu" macromodel of the Romanian transition economy. The main economic indicators are monthly estimated for 2001 simulating a Rational Scenario and a Quasi-Lax Scenario. The indicators are: gross domestic...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005612244

EVOLUTION OF THE MAIN FACTORS OF PRODUCTION AND OF THEIR EFFICIENCY OF USE; RETROSPECTIVE ANALYSES; REFERENCE POINTS FOR MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS

Desmireanu, Ionel - In: Journal for Economic Forecasting (2001) 1, pp. 48-55

The author analyzes the dynamics of the four main factors of production, namely the labor resources, material consumption, energy resources and investments. The intensity of use of these factors is studied using the following indicators: gross output, gross value-added and gross domestic product.

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005612250

A DYNAMIC MODEL OF THE MONEY DEMAND IN ROMANIA

Scutaru, Cornelia; Pelinescu, Elena - In: Journal for Economic Forecasting (2001) 1, pp. 32-47

The purpose of this paper is to offer an effective instrument for the simulation and research of money demand and its determinants, with a focus on the short-term impact of changes in parameters of monetary, foreign exchange and wage policies as well the impact of external shocks. Taking into...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005272650

IMPULSE ANALYSES OF THE ROMANIAN INFLATION

Pelinescu, Elena; Dospinescu, Andrei Silviu - In: Journal for Economic Forecasting 2 (2005) 4, pp. 5-24

This paper is organized in two parts, an overview of the evolution of inflation, highlighting the factors that influenced the persistent inflation in Romania, and a VAR model for the impulse analyses. The purpose of the paper is to present an efficient instrument for simulating and researching...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005827603

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