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Will there be Deflation and Current Account Surpluses?

Croitoru, Lucian - In: Journal for Economic Forecasting (2014) 3, pp. 5-21

In this study we show that inflation rate and current account evolved in line with some historical patterns, once the global financial and economic crisis hit Romania in the latter part of 2008. Core inflation declined at a relatively fast pace for a long period of time. It reached negative...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010938019

How Core Inflation Reacts to the Second Round Effects

Mija, Simion; Slobozian, Dorin; Cuhal, Radu; Stratan, … - In: Journal for Economic Forecasting (2013) 1, pp. 98-118

In order to evaluate the second round effects on core inflation, an econometric model based on auto-regressive vector technique was built. The way the core inflation reacts to the changes of oil and food prices on international markets, is an important matter for monetary policy. Another...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010643299

Alternative Measures of Core Inflation in Romania

Pelinescu, Elena; Dospinescu, Andrei Silviu - In: Journal for Economic Forecasting 5 (2008) 1, pp. 134-148

The paper intends to present synthetically the main approaches to computing core inflation, taking into consideration the importance of core inflation for conducting monetary policy. At the same time, the paper computes different measures of core inflation using methods based on excluding...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005827622

Measuring Core Inflation in Romania Using the Dobrescu Method – A Comparative Approach

Dospinescu, Andrei Silviu - In: Journal for Economic Forecasting (2010) 2, pp. 308-319

The paper focuses on the persistent and non-persistent changes in relative prices and their relation with the volatility of the aggregated price index. From the methodological perspective, the paper analyzes the implications of the hypotheses of five main methods for calculating core inflation...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008492984

Non-Linear Volatility Modeling of Economic and Financial Time Series Using High Frequency Data

Matei, Marius - In: Journal for Economic Forecasting (2011) 2, pp. 116-141

The current work undertakes an overview of the forecasting volatility with high frequency data topic, attempting to … explains why forecasting of volatility is more effective when the model contains a measure of intraday data. A discrete and a … is considered. Details on procedures employed in the literature with respect to modeling and forecasting using realized …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009151358

The Introduction of the Common Currency in Slovenia

Festic, Mejra; Krizanic, France - In: Journal for Economic Forecasting (2011) 1, pp. 88-105

The inflation in the first and half year after the introduction of Euro in Slovenia was of a short-term nature, conditioned also by a favorable economic growth. The cumulative (retail) price level growth was also conditioned by internal factors (a weak competition in certain sectors and an...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009003982

Exchange Market Pressure and De Facto The Evolution of Demographic Phenomena in Terms of Globalization and Environmental Changes

Balan, Mariana - In: Journal for Economic Forecasting (2010) 2, pp. 100-118

in Romania, and their forecasting as well. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008492983

Measuring the Interaction of Structural Changes with Inflation

Dobrescu, Emilian - In: Journal for Economic Forecasting 6 (2009) 5, pp. 5-99

The paper is organized in four chapters. The first describes the methodological framework of the investigation, insisting on defining the sectoral changes and the relative prices, as well as on their interaction (as expectations and as real processes); the theoretical considerations are...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004976934

Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Romanian Price Indices. Avar Approach.

Cozmanca, Bogdan-Octavian; Manea, Florentina - In: Journal for Economic Forecasting (2010) 3, pp. 26-52

This paper investigates the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) into import prices, producer prices and several different measures of consumer price indices for the Romanian economy. In order to determine the size and describe the dynamics in ERPT, the paper employs an array of econometric methods...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008685128

ANSWER OF AN INFLATIONARY CIRCUIT TO THE POSSIBLE SHOCKS IN ECONOMY

Scutaru, Cornelia - In: Journal for Economic Forecasting (2001) 3, pp. 63-77

The paper argues that inside a transitional economy there are circuits driving processes of self-sustaining the inflationary phenomenon, namely inflationary circuits. The author analyzes the dynamics of the main indicators of inflationary process, emphasizing the interaction between two of the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005272624

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