computable general equilibrium trade model calibrated with the latest version of the GTAP database to simulate the effect of … doubling non-tariff barriers - both unilateral and reciprocal - between the two blocks on trade and welfare. Imposing trade … to cooperate rather than turning away from each other. By imposing a trade war on Russia, the political West could …

distinction of goods, factors, firms, and households by location, and the incorporation of trade costs in the model allow to study …

applying a general equilibrium model to the Turkish economy. The numerical results show that the CU is not trade diverting …

) has been studied with an intra-industry trade Applied General Equilibrium (AGE) model with intersectoral capital mobility …

In early 2020, the disease Covid-19 caused a drastic lockdown of the Chinese economy. We use a quantitative trade model … international trade and global value chains (GVCs). We find moderate welfare losses in most countries outside of China, while a few … countries even gain from the shock due to trade diversion. As a key methodological contribution, we quantify the role of GVCs …

When, about twenty years ago, the Euro was created, one objective was to facilitate intra-European trade by reducing … transaction costs. Has the Euro delivered? Using sectoral trade data from 1995 to 2014 and applying structural gravity modeling … trade effect for goods of almost 8 percent, but a much smaller effect for services trade. Digging deeper, we detect …

Global container ship movements may reliably predict global trade flows. Aggregating both movements at sea and port … explanatory time series to unilateral imports and exports, as well as bilateral trade flows. Applying out-of-sample and time … series methods on monthly trade data of 75 countries, this paper shows that the new shipping indicator outperforms benchmark …

The Eastern enlargement of the European Union (EU) is likely to give a further boost to trade and capital flows, yet … determinants of international asset holdings and trade flows. We find in most regressions that EU membership has a significant … candidates actual values are still far below expected ones in most cases. Consequently, we anticipate rising capital and trade …

trade data for about 180 countries and 40 years. We apply our method to measure the short-run effects of natural disasters … temporarily up after a disaster. Using a consistent structural trade model, we back out monthly aggregate productivity measures … Japan impacted those countries and their trade partners conditional on different assumptions about trade costs. …