The economic implications and the income distribution effects of the CU between Turkey and the EU have been studied by applying a general equilibrium model to the Turkish economy. The numerical results show that the CU is not trade diverting. Most importantly, urban (rural) groups are better...

The impact on internal migration of the recent Customs Union (CU) agreement between Turkey and the European Union (EU) has been studied with an intra-industry trade Applied General Equilibrium (AGE) model with intersectoral capital mobility, under two alternative specifications for the labour...

This paper sets up a multiregional dynamic framework by combining the optimal savings model with investment adjustment costs and the spatially disaggregated model with Dixit-Stiglitz structure in the modern sector. Because of increasing product diversity on the dynamic equilibrium path, the...

When, about twenty years ago, the Euro was created, one objective was to facilitate intra-European trade by reducing transaction costs. Has the Euro delivered? Using sectoral trade data from 1995 to 2014 and applying structural gravity modeling, we conduct an ex post evaluation of the European...

The Eastern enlargement of the European Union (EU) is likely to give a further boost to trade and capital flows, yet empirical evidence on the possible magnitudes is still scarce. This paper uses four different datasets to estimate the determinants of international asset holdings and trade...

In early 2020, the disease Covid-19 caused a drastic lockdown of the Chinese economy. We use a quantitative trade model with input-output linkages to gauge the effects of this adverse supply shock in China on the global economy through international trade and global value chains (GVCs). We find...

With ever-increasing political tensions between China and Russia on one side and the EU and the US on the other, it only seems a matter of time until protectionist policies cause a decoupling of global value chains. This paper uses a computable general equilibrium trade model calibrated with the...

We develop a simple methodology to estimate monthly aggregate supply and demand conditions from bilateral international trade data for about 180 countries and 40 years. We apply our method to measure the short-run effects of natural disasters. In line with theoretical considerations, we find...

The Millennium Round of MTNs, which was stillborn in Seattle, was supposed to have initiated wide-sweeping changes to the world's trading system. This paper deals with the impact on the German economy of some changes that might have been forthcoming from proposed liberalization strategies. It...

The extensive margin of bilateral trade exhibits a high level of persistence that cannot be explained by geography or trade policy. We combine a heterogeneous firms model of international trade with bounded productivity with features from the firm dynamics literature to derive expressions for an...