In this note we propose a simple method of measuring directional predictability and testing for the hypothesis that a given time series has no directional predictability. The test is based on the correlogram of quantile hits. We provide the distribution theory needed to conduct inference,...

We develop inference tools in a semiparametric regression model with missing response data. A semiparametric regression imputation estimator, a marginal average estimator and a (marginal) propensity score weighted estimator are defined. All the estimators are proved to be asymptotically normal,...

This paper develops methodology for nonparametric estimation of a polarization measure due to Anderson (2004) and Anderson, Ge, and Leo (2006) based on kernel estimation techniques. We give the asymptotic distribution theory of our estimator, which in some cases is nonstandard due to a boundary...

A dynamic panel data model is considered that contains possibly stochastic individual components and a common stochastic time trend that allows for stationary and nonstationary long memory and general parametric short memory. We propose four different ways of coping with the individual effects...

This paper introduces a nonparametric Granger-causality test for covariance stationary linear processes under, possibly, the presence of long-range dependence. We show that the test is consistent and has power against contiguous alternatives converging to the parametric rate T-½. Since the test...

We propose a smoothed least squares estimator of the parameters of a threshold regression model. Our model generalizes that considered in Hansen (2000) to allow the thresholding to depend on a linear index of observed regressors, thus allowing discrete variables to enter. We also do not assume...

This paper studies cross-country patterns of economic growth from the viewpoint of income distribution dynamics. Such a perspective raises new empirical and theoretical issues in growth analysis: the profound empirical regularity is an \emerging twin peaks" in the cross-sectional distribution,...

Contrary to the classic framework of passive strategies, if investors exploit return predictability through active strategies then there is a tension between the mean-variance frontiers that drive empirical work and the mean-variance preferences that are used in finance theory. We show that...

This paper uses recently developed methods for estimating dynamic heterogeneous cointegrated panel data models - which allows for heterogeneity in parameters and dynamics across agents - to study housing wealth effects in a dynamic model of the 50 US states and the District of Columbia from the...

We examine the relationship between the risk premium on the S&P500 index total return and its conditional variance. We propose a new semiparametric model in which the conditional variance process is parametric, while the conditional mean is an arbitrary function of the conditional variance. For...