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Golden Rule of Forecasting: Be conservative

Armstrong, J. Scott; Green, Kesten C.; Graefe, Andreas - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2014

This paper proposes a unifying theory of forecasting in the form of a Golden Rule of Forecasting. The Golden Rule is to be conservative. A conservative forecast is consistent with cumulative knowledge about the present and the past. To be conservative, forecasters must seek all knowledge...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011257908

Designing IS service strategy: an information acceleration approach

Richard, Pierre J.; Coltman, Tim; Keating, Byron W. - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2009

Information technology-based innovation involves considerable risk that requires insight and foresight. Yet, our …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011260273

Investment Model Uncertainty and Fair Pricing

Los, Cornelis A.; Tungsong, Satjaporn - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2008

, although it does correspond with only one market portfolio risk volatility. This implies that a security' risk premium is …, any investment knowledge about the securities risk remains uncertain. Investment valuations carry with them … epistemological ("modeling") risk in addition to the Markowitz-Sharpe market risk. Second, since idiosyncratic, or firm-specific, risk …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005260204

Small is Beautiful but Size Matters: The Asymmetric Impact of Uncertainty and Sunk Costs on Small and Large Businesses

Ghosal, Vivek - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2007

Against the backdrop of the theories developed in the real options and financing constraints literatures, this paper examines the impact of profit uncertainty and sunk costs on firms’ entry and exit decisions. For our empirical analysis, we compile an extensive dataset containing information...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005260323

Implementation of environmental management systems standards: important factors in corporate decision-making

Halkos, George - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2001

While Environmental Management Systems Standards (EMSS) have been advocated by policy makers and consultants on the basis of a number of benefits associated with their implementation some companies are reluctant to implement them. This paper tests four hypotheses with regard to the significance...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009322657

The Institutional Framework and Decision Making in Sudan

Mohamed, Issam A.W. - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2010

The study here reviews the institutional structure of the Sudanese government. Truly, though it is stigmatized as totalitarian, the structure is phenotypically perfect. Ministry of Ministries council is supposed to cater for analyzing data concerning ministries performance, drawing strategic...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009359954

An economic approach to the self : the dual agent

Lotz, Aïleen - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2011

This paper extends the notion of the rational agent in economics by acknowledging the role of the unconscious in the agent's decision-making process. It argues that the unconscious can be modelled by a rational agent with his own objective function and set of information. The combination of both...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010667914

Decision-Making: A Neuroeconomic Perspective

Hardy-Vallee, Benoit - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2007

This article introduces and discusses from a philosophical point of view the nascent field of neuroeconomics, which is the study of neural mechanisms involved in decision-making and their economic significance. Following a survey of the ways in which decision-making is usually construed in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005836002

Spurious Complexity and Common Standards in Markets for Consumer Goods

Gaudeul, Alexia - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2007

Behavioural and industrial economists have argued that, because of cognitive limitations, consumers are liable to make sub-optimal choices in complex decision problems. Firms can exploit these limitations by introducing spurious complexity into tariff structures, weakening price competition....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008476365

An Economic Approach to the Self : the Dual Agent

Lotz, Aïleen - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2011

This paper extends the notion of the rational agent in economics by acknowledging the role of the unconscious in the agent�s decision-making process. It argues that the unconscious can be modelled by a rational agent with his own objective function and set of information. The combination of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008924813

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