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There is a vast literature that specifies Bayesian shrinkage priors for vector autoregressions (VARs) of possibly large … develop priors for panel VARs (PVARs). The parametric and semi-parametric priors I suggest not only perform valuable shrinkage …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011272688
This paper builds on a simple unified representation of shrinkage Bayes estimators based on hierarchical Normal …-Gamma priors. Various popular penalized least squares estimators for shrinkage and selection in regression models can be recovered … -- 2010 I exhaustively evaluate the forecasting properties of Bayesian shrinkage in regressions with many predictors. Results …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009004835
straightforward posterior computation, they require minimal input by the user, and they result in shrinkage posterior representations …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011109841
This paper proposes a unifying theory of forecasting in the form of a Golden Rule of Forecasting. The Golden Rule is to be conservative. A conservative forecast is consistent with cumulative knowledge about the present and the past. To be conservative, forecasters must seek all knowledge...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011257908