This paper proposes a unifying theory of forecasting in the form of a Golden Rule of Forecasting. The Golden Rule is to be conservative. A conservative forecast is consistent with cumulative knowledge about the present and the past. To be conservative, forecasters must seek all knowledge...

This perspective paper discusses challenges and risks of the information age, and the implications for the information and communication technologies that need to be built and operated. It addresses ethical and policy issues related with Big Data and how procedures for privacy-preserving data...

Schwarz. In this paper I evaluate the predictive ability of the Akaike and Schwarz information criteria using autoregressive integrated moving average models, with sectoral data of Chilean GDP. In terms of root mean square error, and after the estimation of more than a million models, the...

There is no standard economic forecasting procedure that systematically outperforms the others at all horizons and with any dataset. A common way to proceed, in many contexts, is to choose the best model within a family based on a fitting criteria, and then forecast. I compare the out-of-sample...

Higher education institutions are nucleus of research and future development acting in a competitive environment, with the prerequisite mission to generate, accumulate and share knowledge. The chain of generating knowledge inside and among external organizations (such as companies, other...

Retrieving valuable knowledge and statistical patterns from official data has a great potential in supporting strategic policy making. Data Mining (DM) techniques are well-known for providing flexible and efficient analytical tools for data processing. In this paper, we provide an introduction...

The role of a system for the control of the data bases and the facilities offered by it is highly important in the success and performance of an executive informatics system. From this point of view, the analyze will take into account the facilities of working with evolved data bases and...

Data Mining represents the extraction previously unknown, and potentially useful information from data. Using Data Mining Decision Trees techniques our investigation tries to illustrate how to extract meaningful socio-economical knowledge from large data sets. Our tests find 5 attributes...

We compare the performance of both hedonic and non-hedonic pricing models applied to the problem of housing valuation in the city of Madrid. Urban areas pose several challenges in data mining because of the potential presence of different market segments originated from geospatial relations....

Nowadays, when companies are dealing with severe global competition, they are making serious investments in Customer Relationship Management (CRM) strategies. One of the cornerstones in CRM is customer churn prediction, the practice of determining a mathematical relation between customer...