This paper proposes a unifying theory of forecasting in the form of a Golden Rule of Forecasting. The Golden Rule is to be conservative. A conservative forecast is consistent with cumulative knowledge about the present and the past. To be conservative, forecasters must seek all knowledge...

In recent years, the government, of African Countries has assumed major responsibilities for economic reforms and growth. In attempting to describe their economies, economists (policymakers) in many African Countries have applied certain models that are by now widely known: Linear programming...

This perspective paper discusses challenges and risks of the information age, and the implications for the information and communication technologies that need to be built and operated. It addresses ethical and policy issues related with Big Data and how procedures for privacy-preserving data...

This paper is prepared against the broader background of the policy debates on the breeding, feeding and distributional consequences of dairy development in India. The data for the study is drawn from the National Dairy Sample Survey covering 186 districts spread over 14 major States in the...

Research and Science Today Journal is a publication founded in 2011 and it is dedicated to the students of all levels (license, master and doctoral) of faculties in the country and abroad. We want to offer the participants the opportunity to present their scientific works in the following areas:...

Systematic risk has been a focus for stress testing and risk capital assessment. Under the Vasicek asymptotic single risk factor model framework, entity default risk for a risk homogeneous portfolio divides into two parts: systematic and entity specific. While entity specific risk can be...

The Basel Accords have created the need to develop and implement models for PD, LGD and EAD. Although PD is quite well researched, LGD and EAD still lag both in theoretical and practical aspects. This paper proposes some empirical approaches for EAD/LGD modelling and provides technical insights...

This paper examines the demand for edible oil in Pakistan and a dynamic supply response model to show price responsiveness by sunflower oilseed farmers. The demand for edible oil is estimated by using Ordinary Least Square (OLS) technique. It has been found that an increase in the consumption of...

The transition density of a diffusion process does not admit an explicit expression in general, which prevents the full maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) based on discretely observed sample paths. Aït-Sahalia [J. Finance 54 (1999) 1361–1395; Econometrica 70 (2002) 223–262] proposed asymptotic...

This paper examines the impact of minimum wages on average wage earnings in two selected countries, Trinidad and Tobago and Jamaica using a time-series data for the latter and a panel data for both. The methodology of GMM time-series estimation is used on the Jamaican data (1980-2011) and a Two...