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Nowcasting Regional GDP: The Case of the Free State of Saxony

Henzel, Steffen; Lehmann, Robert; Wohlrabe, Klaus - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2015

We tackle the nowcasting problem at the regional level using a large set of indicators (regional, national and …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011267848

Real-Time Nowcasting Nominal GDP Under Structural Break

Barnett, William A.; Chauvet, Marcelle; Leiva-Leon, Danilo - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2014

This paper provides early assessments of current U.S. Nominal GDP growth, which has been considered as a potential new monetary policy target. The nowcasts are computed using the exact amount of information that policy makers have available at the time predictions are made. However, real time...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011112417

A Flexible State Space Model and its Applications

Qian, Hang - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2012

The standard state space model (SSM) treats observations as imprecise measures of the Markov latent states. Our flexible SSM treats the states and observables symmetrically, which are simultaneously determined by historical observations and up to first-lagged states. The only distinction between...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011108582

Real-time forecasting in a data-rich environment

LIEBERMANN, JOELLE - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2012

-term horizons. Inflation is known to be hard to forecast, but by exploiting timely information one obtains gains at nowcasting and …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011259073

A note on GDP now-/forecasting with dynamic versus static factor models along a business cycle

Buss, Ginters - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2010

nowcasting performance during a pronounced switch of business cycle phases due to the latest recession. We compare the factor … models' nowcasting performance to a random walk, autoregressive and the best-performing nowcasting models at our hands, which … improve upon the nowcasting performance of the VAR models when the model span and the nowcasting period stretch beyond a …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008470462

Real-time nowcasting of GDP: Factor model versus professional forecasters

Liebermann, Joelle - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2010

This paper performs a fully real-time nowcasting (forecasting) exercise of US real gross domestic product (GDP) growth … nowcasting performance. Analogously to Giannone et al. (2008) pseudo real-time results, we find that the precision of the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008839204

Model Averaging in Markov-Switching Models: Predicting National Recessions with Regional Data

Guérin, Pierre; Leiva-Leon, Danilo - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2014

This paper estimates and forecasts U.S. business cycle turning points with state-level data. The probabilities of recession are obtained from univariate and multivariate regime-switching models based on a pairwise combination of national and state-level data. We use two classes of combination...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011111725

Nowcasting Tourist Arrivals to Prague: Google Econometrics

Zeynalov, Ayaz - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2014

present research will report whether Google data is potentially useful in nowcasting or short-term forecasting using by …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011113609

Golden Rule of Forecasting: Be conservative

Armstrong, J. Scott; Green, Kesten C.; Graefe, Andreas - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2014

This paper proposes a unifying theory of forecasting in the form of a Golden Rule of Forecasting. The Golden Rule is to be conservative. A conservative forecast is consistent with cumulative knowledge about the present and the past. To be conservative, forecasters must seek all knowledge...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011257908