that forecasting behavior systematically deviates from normative predictions: Forecasters overreact to forecast errors in …

This paper presents a new technique for forecasting frequencies of events over time for individuals. The technique …

This paper examines the forecasting accuracy and the cost effectiveness of time series models with time …-varying coefficients. A simulation study investigates the potential forecasting benefits of a proposed Kalman filter type adaptive … estimation and forecasting approach. It is found that: (1) When appropriate, the time-varying coefficient approach leads to …

An alternative to using a single forecasting method is to average the forecasts made by various methods. In this paper … predict corporate earnings per share. We conclude that, on average, the primary forecasting advantages of analysts over time … beginning of the fiscal year. For predictions in the first half of the fiscal year, there is evidence of forecasting benefits …

This paper analyzes the impact of forecasting on inventory decisions in a large physical distribution system …. Alternative forecasting models are evaluated by developing tradeoff curves between inventory investment and customer service. The … results demonstrate that the choice of forecasting model is an important factor in determining the amount of investment needed …

bullwhip effect: demand forecasting and order lead times. We extend these results to multiple-stage supply chains with and …