Knowledge acquisition is a bottleneck for expert system design. One way to overcome this bottleneck is to induce expert system rules from sample data. This paper presents a new induction approach called CRIS. The key notion employed in CRIS is that nominal and nonnominal attributes have...

A number of different tests and approaches are developed to determine the existence of potential anomalies in rule-based systems that employ MYCIN uncertainty factors (weights). First, the distribution of weights is compared to other systems' distributions and weights are investigated as to...

With rapidly growing interest in the development of knowledge-based computer consulting systems for various problem domains, the difficulties associated with knowledge acquisition have special importance. This paper reports on the results of experiments designed to assess the effectiveness of an...

This paper examines the feasibility of rule-based forecasting, a procedure that applies forecasting expertise and domain knowledge to produce forecasts according to features of the data. We developed a rule base to make annual extrapolation forecasts for economic and demographic time series. The...

This paper evaluates the ex ante performance of rule-based time series forecasting systems proposed in earlier research. The author shows that comparable performance can be obtained with a simpler alternative, a damped-trend version of exponential smoothing fitted to minimize the...

A modeling framework that merges knowledge-based expert systems and decision support systems with management science methods for project evaluation is presented. In particular, the strategic decision to commit to full-scale development of a new product is considered. At the core of the framework...

Increased maritime traffic, new types of vessels, and construction of oil and gas producing structures have made navigating in close waters more hazardous. In addition, attempts to increase shipboard productivity have resulted in fewer personnel on board the vessel. This paper reports on the...

A decision maker's performance relies on the availability of relevant information. In many environments, the relation between the decision maker's informational needs and the information base is complex and uncertain. A fundamental concept of information systems, such as decision support and...

The behavioral theory of the firm and prospect theory predict that performance below an aspiration level increases risk taking, but researchers also propose that performance below an aspiration level decreases risk taking. These conflicting predictions primarily hinge on whether decision makers...