We develop a forward-looking empirical concept of social exclusion based on the estimated transition probabilities from a random effects multinominal logit-model. Youths are considered socially excluded if they are currently outside school/work and have a low predicted probability of re-entering...

Labour market conditions at the time and place of potential entry into the labour market are shown to have a substantial and persistent impact on adult labour market performance. Birth cohorts that face particularly depressed labour markets when they graduate from primary- and/or secondary...

We use Norwegian register data from 1989 to 2002 to estimate the causal effects of programme participation on the transition rate from unemployment to employment,by means of a dependent risks hazard rate model. The separate roles of causality and unobserved heterogeneity are non-parametrically...

From a detailed study of the yearly wage bargaining rounds in Norway and Sweden, we construct time series of five complemetary coordination indices. Econometrics is used to evaluate the importance of the coordination indicators for our understanding of the changes in the rates of unemployment...

Based on a combined register database for Norwegian and Swedish unemployment spells, we use the ‘between-countries-variation’ in the unemployment insurance systems to identify causal effects. The elasticity of the job hazard rate with respect to the benefit replacement ratio is around -1.0...

Building on register data describing monthly labour market status for the whole Norwegian population 1992-95, we estimate grouped competing risk hazard rate models for transitions between employment, unemployment and non-participation. The models impose no parametric restrictions on either...

We use Norwegian micro-data to identify the driving forces behind unemployment spells following temporary- and permanent dismissals. The duration of unemployment spells for permanently dismissed workers is primarily explained by individual resources and economic incentives, while spell-duration...

A popular explanation for the European unemployment problem is that relative wages have failed to adjust to changes in relative productivities. Many economists reject this hypothesis on the ground that the ratios of low- to high-skill unemployment have not increased. Building on a search model,...

We investigate how unemployment exit probabilities are affected by economic incentives, spell duration and macroeconomic conditions. Building on a database containing all registered unemployment spells in Norway in 1989-1998, we apply an econometric model in which exit probabilities vary freely...

Empirical and theoretical studies suggest that employment behaviour varies with the state of the labour market since hiring and firings costs depend on the availability of labour. Extending earlier empirical work on this subject, we test for state dependence in employment adjustment and in the...