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Inflation targeting offers the promise of introducing to monetary policy a logic and consistency that some central banks' deliberations sorely missed in the past. At least in today's inherited monetary policymaking context, however, inflation targeting also serves two further objectives that are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012469742
This paper studies how the creation of a European Central Bank (ECB) will change the political economy of monetary policy in Europe. The twelve governors of the national Central Banks of the EEC have recently proposed a statute for the ECB which delineates its institutional structure. In this...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012475129
We quantify the importance of non-monetary news in central bank communication. Using evidence from four major central banks and a comprehensive classification of events, we decompose news conveyed by central banks into news about monetary policy, economic growth, and separately, shocks to risk...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012480685
A new measure of credibility is constructed as a function of the differential between observed inflation and some … estimate of the inflation rate that the central bank targets. The target is assumed to be met flexibly. Credibility is … credibility and central banks with strong institutional feaures tend to do better when hit by a shock of the magnitude of the 2007 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456960
The perceptions of a central bank's inflation aversion may reflect institutional structure or, more dynamically, the history of its policy decisions. In this paper, we present a novel empirical framework that uses high frequency data to test for persistent variation in market perceptions of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012466879
We develop and estimate a general equilibrium model in which monetary policy can deviate from active inflation stabilization and agents face uncertainty about the nature of these deviations. When observing a deviation, agents conduct Bayesian learning to infer its likely duration. Under...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458099
We propose a new framework for understanding the effectiveness of central bank announcements when firms have heterogeneous inflation expectations. Expectations are updated through social dynamics and, with heterogeneity, not all firms choose to operate, putting downward pressure on realized...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458503
, because it reduces policy flexibility and harms the central bank's credibility and decision-making process. Central banks may …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012482494
Narrative records in US newspapers reveal that about 70 percent of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members who served during the last 55 years are perceived to have had persistent policy preferences over time, as either inflation-fighting hawks or growth-promoting doves. The rest are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012453069
We assess the power of forward guidance--promises about future interest rates--as a monetary tool in a liquidity trap using a quantitative incomplete-markets model. Our results suggest the effects of forward guidance are negligible. A commitment to keep future nominal interest rates low for a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012453195