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Macroeconomic Volatility in Latin America : A View and Three Case Studies

Caballero, Ricardo J. - 2000

Mexico …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470968

The Business Cycles of Balance-of-Payment Crises : A Revision of Mundellan Framework

Mendoza, Enrique G. - 1999

In his seminal 1960 article Robert Mundell proposed a model of balance-of-payments crises in which confidence in the continuation of a currency peg depended on the observed holdings of central bank foreign reserves. We examine the implications of a reformulation of this view from the perspective...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471756

Estimating Macroeconomic Models of Financial Crises : An Endogenous Regime-Switching Approach

Benigno, Gianluca - 2020

Bayesian methods to fit Mexico's business cycle and financial crisis history since 1981. The estimated model fits the data well …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012481893

Endogenous Sudden Stops in a Business Cycle Model with Collateral Constraints : A Fisherian Deflation of Tobin's Q

Mendoza, Enrique G. - 2006

The current account reversals, large recessions, and price collapses that define Sudden Stops contradict the predictions of a large class of models in which the current account is a vehicle for consumption smoothing and investment financing. This paper shows that the quantitative predictions of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012466098

Credit, Prices, and Crashes : Business Cycles with a Sudden Stop

Mendoza, Enrique G. - 2001

The 1990s emerging-markets crises were characterized by sudden reversals in inflows of foreign capital followed by unusually large declines in current account deficits, private expenditures, production, and prices of nontradable goods relative to tradables. This paper shows that these Sudden...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470386

Micro Propagation and Macro Aggregation

Baqaee, David; Rubbo, Elisa - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022

This paper reviews a framework for studying the aggregation and propagation of microeconomic shocks in general equilibrium. We discuss the determinants of aggregate measures of real economic activity, like real GDP, real domestic absorption, and aggregate productivity in both efficient and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013435100

A New Way of Forecasting Recessions

Leamer, Edward E. - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022

This paper proposes a new way of displaying and analyzing macroeconomic time series to form recession forecasts. The proposed data displays contain the last three years of each expansion. These allow observers to see for themselves what is different about the last year before recession. Based on...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013334464

Trade policy, income risk, and welfare

Krebs, Tom - 2005

"This paper studies empirically the relationship between trade policy and individual income risk faced by workers, and uses the estimates of this empirical analysis to evaluate the welfare effect of trade reform. The analysis proceeds in three steps. First, longitudinal data on workers are used...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010522578

Interest Rates, Contagion and Capital Controls

Edwards, Sebastian - 2000

In this paper I analyze several issues related to contagion,' including its definition, recent experiences, alternative channels at work, and possible prevention mechanisms. The discussion deals with the macroeconomics implications of contagion, and concentrates on the relationship between the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470949

On the Instability of Variance Decompositions of the Real Exchange Rate across Exchange-Rate-Regimes : Evidence from Mexico and the United States

Mendoza, Enrique G. - 2000

Variance decompositions of the Mexico-United States real exchange rate are examined using monthly data on consumer … tradable goods and nominal exchange rates holds only in periods in which Mexico was not under a regime of exchange …-rate management. In periods in the sample in which Mexico had a managed exchange-rate regime, the variability of prices of non …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470982

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