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, and the exchange rate is priced by uncovered interest parity, the real exchange rate is determined by expected inflation …-squares learning path for the real exchange rate implied by inflation and output gap data exhibits the real depreciation of the 70s …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012467626
perform poorly when knowledge is imperfect. In particular, policies that fail to maintain tight control over inflation are … prone to episodes in which the public's expectations of inflation become uncoupled from the policy objective and stagflation … effective communication of a central bank's inflation objective and of continued vigilance against inflation in anchoring …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012468813
We present a framework for computing and evaluating linear projections of macro variables conditional on hypothetical paths of monetary policy. A modest policy intervention is a change in policy that does not significantly shift agents' beliefs about policy regime and does not generate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012469518
Inflation targeting offers the promise of introducing to monetary policy a logic and consistency that some central …, inflation targeting also serves two further objectives that are of more questionable import, and while seemingly contradictory … vocabulary pertaining solely to inflation, inflation targeting fosters over time the atrophication of concerns for real outcomes …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012469742
. Key to our estimation strategy is the use of survey-based expectations for inflation and output. We identify accommodating … shocks shift to the low volatility regime around 1985 whereas inflation shocks do so only around 1990, suggesting active … monetary policy may have played role in anchoring inflation expectations. Shocks and policy regimes jointly drive the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012461567
What monetary policy framework, if adopted by the Federal Reserve, would have avoided the Great Inflation of the 1960s … policy strategies. We show that policies constructed using modern optimal control techniques aimed at stabilizing inflation … stabilizing economic activity, an optimal control approach would have failed to keep inflation expectations well anchored …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012461579
control inflation and influence the economy in the usual ways. The paper discusses models of fiscal limits and their …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012461838
output response vanished, and the inflation response path became more gradual but larger in long-run magnitude. These … response coefficient estimates are robust to measurement and theoretical issues with both potential output and the inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462244
The valuation of government debt is subject to strategic uncertainty, stemming from investors' sentiments. Pessimistic lenders, fearing default, bid down the price of debt. This leaves a government with a higher debt burden, increasing the likelihood of default and thus confirming the pessimism...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458015
We develop and estimate a general equilibrium model in which monetary policy can deviate from active inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458099