This short paper analyses the decline of France’s trade balance over the past 15 years. While the loss in export market shares is comparable to that of the major OECD countries except Germany, it is one of the largest among the countries of the euro area. The determinants of this outcome seem...

This paper analyses the monetary and fiscal policy implications of output gap estimates in times of crisis. The widening of output gaps observed in major OECD economies in the wake of the recent crisis has been mainly due to total factor productivity gaps, except in the United States where it...

The 2007-2009 period has been characterised by an oil shock followed by a financial crisis. Higher oil prices and the prospect of higher borrowing costs are likely to reduce the productive potential of OECD economies. The present study provides illustrative numerical estimates of the impact...

The supply-side framework and related measures of output and unemployment gaps play a leading role in the OECD analysis of short-term conjunctural conditions and long-term determinants of growth. To allow such diagnoses for Poland, this paper develops a comprehensive supply block in accordance...

The unprecedented 11 September 2001 terrorist attacks in the United States caused massive casualties and damage, and ushered in an era of greater uncertainty. While a prompt and vigorous policy response helped limit the immediate economic impact of the aggression, the heightened terrorist threat...

The OECD makes frequent use of the supply-side framework and associated measures of factor productivity, productive potential and associated output gaps in the assessment of the short-term conjunctural situation, comparative economic performance and longer-term growth determinants. This paper...

High expectations surrounded the two waves of eastward EU enlargement in 2004 and 2007, with the extension of the EU Internal Market being expected to deliver a substantial boost to economic growth in new and old member States alike. Indeed, considerable progress has been made, with existing...

This paper presents long-term trade scenarios for the world economy up to 2060 based on a modelling approach that combines aggregate growth projections for the world with a detailed computable general equilibrium sectoral trade model. The analysis suggests that over the next 50 years, the...

In many OECD countries, government debt reached levels over recent years that call for reduction over the medium to longer term to ensure public finance sustainability. This paper investigates the international transmission of fiscal consolidation shocks via trade flows. Using a measure of...

The correlation between a firm’s size and its productivity level varies considerably across OECD countries, suggesting that some countries are more successful at channelling resources to high productivity firms than others. Accordingly, we examine the extent to which regulations affecting...