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The impact of sovereign yield curve differentials on value-at-risk forecasts for foreign exchange rates
Fink, Holger Maria; Fuest, Andreas; Port, Henry - In: Risks : open access journal 6 (2018) 3, pp. 1-19
A functional ARMA-GARCH model for predicting the value-at-risk of the EURUSD exchange rate is introduced. The model … August 2005–30 September 2016. As a benchmark, we take an ARMA-GARCH and an ARMAX-GARCHX with the 2y-yield difference as the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011890808
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Assessing financial stability in turbulent times : a study of generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity-type Value-at-Risk model performance in Thailand's transportation sector during covid-19
Danai Likitratcharoen; Lucksuda Suwannamalik - In: Risks : open access journal 12 (2024) 3, pp. 1-19
of VaR approaches. This study critically evaluates the efficacy of GARCH-type VaR models within the transportation sector … GARCH-type VaR models include GARCH (1,1) VaR, ARMA (1,1)-GARCH (1,1) VaR, GARCH (1,1)-M VaR, IGARCH (1,1) VaR, EWMA VaR … surpasses GARCH-type VaR models in failure rate accuracy. Within the GARCH-type category, the EWMA VaR model exhibited superior …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014497424
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A hybrid model for forecasting realized volatility based on heterogeneous autoregressive model and support vector regression
Zhuo, Yue; Morimoto, Takayuki - In: Risks : open access journal 12 (2024) 1, pp. 1-16
In this study, we proposed two types of hybrid models based on the heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) model and support vector regression (SVR) model to forecast realized volatility (RV). The first model is a residual-type model, where the RV is first predicted using the HAR model, and the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014480965
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Financial time series forecasting using empirical mode decomposition and support vector regression
Nava, Noemi; Di Matteo, Tiziana; Aste, Tomaso - In: Risks : open access journal 6 (2018) 1, pp. 1-21
We introduce a multistep-ahead forecasting methodology that combines empirical mode decomposition (EMD) and support vector regression (SVR). This methodology is based on the idea that the forecasting task is simplified by using as input for SVR the time series decomposed with EMD. The outcomes...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011811500
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Forecasting volatility of the Nordic electricity market an application of the MSGARCH
Naeem, Muhammad; Jassim, Hothefa Shaker; Saleem, Kashif; … - In: Risks : open access journal 13 (2025) 3, pp. 1-19
) under regime switching. Utilizing Markov-switching GARCH (Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) models …-sample criteria, we find that regime-switching models have lower AIC (Akaike information criterion) than single-regime GARCH models …. In addition, out-of-sample forecasts indicate that regime-switching GARCH models have superior Value-at-Risk (VaR …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015358886
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Monte Carlo-based VaR estimation and backtesting under Basel III
Cheng, Yueming - In: Risks : open access journal 13 (2025) 8, pp. 1-17
Value-at-Risk (VaR) is a key metric widely applied in market risk assessment and regulatory compliance under the Basel III framework. This study compares two Monte Carlo-based VaR models using publicly available equity data: a return-based model calibrated to historical portfolio volatility, and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015448974
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Monte Carlo simulation of the moments of a copula-dependent risk process with Weibull interwaiting time
Alhabshi, Sharifah Farah Syed Yusoff; Zamzuri, Zamira … - In: Risks : open access journal 9 (2021) 6, pp. 1-13
The widely used Poisson count process in insurance claims modeling is no longer valid if the claims occurrences exhibit dispersion. In this paper, we consider the aggregate discounted claims of an insurance risk portfolio under Weibull counting process to allow for dispersed datasets. A copula...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012598393
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Multi-variate risk measures under Wasserstein barycenter
Arias-Serna, M. Andrea; Loubes, Jean Michel; … - In: Risks : open access journal 10 (2022) 9, pp. 1-15
When the uni-variate risk measure analysis is generalized into the multi-variate setting, many complex theoretical and applied problems arise, and therefore the mathematical models used for risk quantification usually present model risk. As a result, regulators have started to require that the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013368725
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Assessing the market risk on the government debt of Kazakhstan and Bulgaria in conditions of turbulence
Em, Olga; Georgiev, Georgi; Radukanov, Sergey; Petrova, … - In: Risks : open access journal 10 (2022) 5, pp. 1-18
The purpose of this publication is to quantify and compare the market risk on the external government debt of Kazakhstan and Bulgaria in the conditions of COVID-19, the emerging energy crisis, and the coup attempt in the first country. In particular, the authors invest the market risk of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013359115
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Multi-Variate risk measures under Wasserstein Barycenter
Arias-Serna, M. Andrea; Loubes, Jean Michel; … - In: Risks : open access journal 10 (2022) 9, pp. 1-15
When the uni-variate risk measure analysis is generalized into the multi-variate setting, many complex theoretical and applied problems arise, and therefore the mathematical models used for risk quantification usually present model risk. As a result, regulators have started to require that the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013555458