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The strong consistency and asymptotic normality of the maximum likelihood estimator in observation-driven models usually requires the study of the model both as a filter for the time-varying parameter and as a data generating process (DGP) for observed data. The probabilistic properties of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011272581
We investigate the information theoretic optimality properties of the score function of the predictive likelihood as a device to update parameters in observation driven time-varying parameter models. The results provide a new theoretical justification for the class of generalized autoregressive...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011272597
This discussion paper resulted in an article in the <I>Journal of Financial Econometrics</I> (2012). Vol. 10, pages 354-389.<p> This paper considers spot variance path estimation from datasets of intraday high frequency asset prices in the presence of diurnal variance patterns, jumps, leverage effects and...</p></i>
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011255584
This discussion paper led to a publication in the 'Journal of Econometrics', 2011, 163, 215-230.<P> We propose new scoring rules based on partial likelihood for assessing the relative out-of-sample predictive accuracy of competing density forecasts over a specific region of interest, such as the...</p>
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011255794
parameter dynamics. The new test has higher and more stable power against alternatives with frequent regime switches or with non …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011255854
This paper considers spot variance path estimation from datasets of intraday high frequency asset prices in the presence of diurnal variance patterns, jumps, leverage effects and microstructure noise. We rely on parametric and nonparametric methods. The estimated spot variance path can be used...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008513245
investigating the robustness of cointegration methods. Finally, we illustrate how to obtain local power functions of cointegration …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005137044
power problems, whereas the remaining two are adequate and in fact equivalent. The equivalence between the two valid …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005137131
We propose new scoring rules based on partial likelihood for assessing the relative out-of-sample predictive accuracy of competing density forecasts over a specific region of interest, such as the left tail in financial risk management. By construction, existing scoring rules based on weighted...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005137187
It is generally believed that for the power of unit root tests, only the time span and not the observation frequency … methods will yield power gains in the presence of fat tails and persistent volatility clustering, and the strength of these … features (and hence the power gains) increases with the observation frequency. This is illustrated using both Monte Carlo …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005137272