In this paper we develop a structural equation model with latent variables in an ordinal setting which allows us to test broker-dealer predictive ability of financial market movements. We use a multivariate logit model in a latent factor framework, develop a tractable estimator based on a...

This paper examines the rise of the VAR approach from a historical perspective. It shows that the VAR approach arises as a systematic solution to the issue of 'model choice' bypassed by Cowles Commission (CC) researchers, and that the approach essentially inherits and enhances the CC legacy...

In the face of the dramatic economic events of recent months and the inability of academics and policymakers to prevent them, the New Consensus Macroeconomics (NCM) model has been the subject of several criticisms. This paper considers one of the main criticisms lodged against the NCM model,...

Test statistics that are suitable for testing composite hypotheses are typically non-pivotal, and conservative bounds are commonly used to test composite hypotheses. In this paper, we propose a testing procedure for composite hypotheses that incorporates additional sample information. This...

Multivariate random sums appear in many scientific fields, most notably in actuarial science, where they model both the number of claims and their sizes. Unfortunately, they pose severe inferential problems. For example, their density function is analytically intractable, in the general case,...

There is considerable literature on matrix-variate gamma distributions, also known as Wishart distributions, which are driven by a shape parameter with values in the (Gindikin) set {i/2, i = 1, . . . , k−1}∪((k−1)/2, É). We provide an extension of this class to the case where the shape...

The solutions of a macroeconometricmodel with expectations of future-dated variables has to be approximated by numerical simulations. A brief review of deterministic and stochastic dynamic simulations of a backward-looking model is followed by a conceptual presentation of methods for dynamic...

This paper analyzes the identifying power of weak convexity assumptions in treatment effect models with endogenous selection. The counterfactual distributions are constrained either in terms of the response function, or conditional on the realized treatment, and sharp bounds on the potential...

This study investigates reactions to real exchange rate changes in the German, French and UK automobile and mechanical engineering sectors using monthly data from 1995 to 2010. Our findings indicate that EUR/USD appreciations hamper exports, but do not necessarily imply an aggravated business...

The traditional causality relationship proposed by Granger (1969) assumes the relationships between variables are short range dependent with the same integrated order. Chen (2006) proposed a bi-variate model which can catch the long-range dependent among the two variables and the series do not...