Models based on economic theory have serious problems at forecasting exchange rates better than simple univariate … forecasting. In addition, we adopt a driftless random walk prior, so that cross-dynamics matter for forecasting only if there is …

We propose a new approach to forecasting the term structure of interest rates, which allows to efficiently extract the … forecasting performance of our proposed model relative to most of the existing alternative specifications. While most of the … useful for forecasting. …

growth through capital accumulation. This paper contributes to this literature. As opposed to the previous studies, which …

Using a two-sector endogenous growth model, this paper explores how productivity shocks in the goods and human capital … observed variation in these aggregates. We find that while neither of the workhorse growth models uniformly dominates the other … two technology shocks in the human capital model is greater than the Hicks-neutral shock in the RBC model in the medium …

The Chicago Fed dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model is used for policy analysis and forecasting at the …

used to obtain a nowcast for GDP growth in the first quarter and an outlook until the third quarter 2021. We purge the …. These monthly shocks are included in a univariate model for quarterly GDP growth to capture timely, current …-quarter unexpected changes in growth dynamics. Included shocks explain additionally 24% in GDP growth variation. The model is able to …

impact of these shocks on economic growth. This paper reviews the literature on macroeconomic vulnerability and finds that …