Proxy means test (PMT) poverty targeting tools have become common tools for beneficiary targeting and poverty assessment where full means tests are costly. Currently popular estimation procedures for generating these tools prioritize minimization of in-sample prediction errors; however, the...

This paper implements a machine learning approach to estimate intra-generational economic mobility using cross-sectional data. A Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (Lasso) procedure is applied to explore poverty dynamics and household-level welfare growth in the absence of panel...

This paper proposes a set of new methods to estimate inequality of opportunity based on conditional inference regression trees. It illustrates how these methods represent a substantial improvement over existing empirical approaches to measure inequality of opportunity. First, the new methods...

This paper proposes a methodology for identifying urban areas that combines subjective assessments with machine learning, and applies it to India, a country where several studies see the official urbanization rate as an under-estimate. For a representative sample of cities, towns and villages,...

This paper compares the relative performance of man and machine in being able to predict outcomes for entrants in a business plan competition in Nigeria. The first human predictions are business plan scores from judges, and the second are simple ad hoc prediction models used by researchers. The...

This paper assesses the impact of social assistance benefits on household welfare in Moldova. Ignoring standard issues of impact evaluations such as selection bias, behavioral responses, unobserved heterogeneity and endogeneity, an incidence analysis suggests that increased spending on social...

This paper investigates the causal impact of oil price fluctuations on financial markets since January 2014. Following a heteroscedasticity-based event study approach, the paper instruments changes in oil prices by exogenous shocks in oil supply. It finds that oil price declines raise...

Conditional cash transfer programs, whereby transfers to households are conditional on school attendance or health checkups, have become a widespread policy tool. They are viewed as a means of immediate poverty alleviation through the cash payments, and as a foundation of long-term poverty...

This paper uses a regression discontinuity design to study the effect of Poland's In-Tech program on innovation activities. The analysis focuses on a component of the program that provides grants to projects that are carried out by consortia of firms and research entities. Data from a 2016...

This paper uses the 2010/11 Income and Expenditure Survey for South Africa to analyze the progressivity of the main tax and social spending programs and quantify their impact on poverty and inequality. The paper also assesses the redistributive effectiveness of fiscal interventions given the...