Ursachen von Kreditzyklen unter Berücksichtigung vollkommener und begrenzter Rationalität -- Anreizsysteme und Kreditzyklen in den USA -- Anreizsysteme und Kreditzyklen in mehreren Industrienationen.

This paper considers Bayesian regression with normal and doubleexponential priors as forecasting methods based on large panels of time series. We show that, empirically, these forecasts are highly correlated with principal component forecasts and that they perform equally well for a wide range...