How do markets learn about central banks? Employing narrative evidence and futures data, Cieślak, Morse and Vissing-Jørgensen (2018) argue that private, informal channels systematically carry Federal Reserve information to markets around monetary-policy meetings. I complement their work with...

We develop a model where overconfident investors overestimate their own signal quality but are skeptical of others'. Those investors who are initially uninformed believe that the early informed have learned little, leading the former investors to provide excess liquidity, which, in turn, causes...