This article aims at estimating leading indicators of the American economy with financial variables. We use two types of hidden Markov chains models, a quantitative one (Krolzig (1997)) and a qualitative one (Gregoir and Lenglart (2000)). These models provide a robust and reliable framework to...

We build a model with frictional unemployment and staggered wage bargaining and we assume that hours worked are negotiated every period. We analyze the role of workers? bargaining power in the hours negotiation on unemployment volatility and inflation persistence. The closer to zero is this...

This paper is dedicated at reconsidering objectives and instruments of monetary policy and also at redefining a policy mix in an economy which is systematically confronted to imbalances due to changes in technology, in the composition of demand or in the distribution of income, It is motivated...

In this article we estimate a time-varying " natural " rate of interest (TVNRI) for a synthetic euro area over the period 1979Q1-2002Q4 using a small backward-looking macroeconomic model, broadly following a methodology developed by Laubach and Williams (2003) for the United States. The Kalman...

This paper investigates the implications of cross-country heterogeneity within the euro area for the design of optimal monetary policy. We build an optimizing-based multi-country model (MCM) describing the euro area in which differences between structural parameters across countries are allowed....

Aux États-Unis, l’information issue des séries financières, qui reflètent les anticipations des agents basées sur l’information économique disponible, permet de bien prévoir la survenance de retournements conjoncturels.

This article puts forward a framework based primarily on probabilistic tools to analyse the nature of housing loan cycles in France. The continued high growth rate of housing loans may indeed raise concerns as to the duration and determinants of the cycle which currently prevails. The results...

This paper sheds a new light on the puzzling negative relationship between nominal stock returns and expected inflation. The assertion that stocks offer a hedge against inflation is theoretically founded on the Fisher identity. Contrary to this fundamental view, recent empirical tests reject...

Dans une économie de marchés financiers, soumis au risque de disfonctionnement, où les actifs financiers sont des substituts imparfaits, on ne peut pas négliger les marchés financiers et monétaires dans les décisions de politique monétaire comme le suppose actuellement la littérature de...