A microsimulation of demographic behaviours using the 1997 Insee Survey about Young People and Job Histories (Robert-Bobée 2001) leads to the following results: if demographic behaviours remain the same as the ones observed in 1995-1996, completed fertility may decrease to less than 2 children...

This paper presents a new modelling of demographic events in the microsimulation model Destinie: union formations, union disruptions and births. The previous modelling was based on the 1997 Insee Survey on Young People and Job Histories, whose sample was of limited size (20 000 persons aged 19...