The forecasting literature has identified three important and broad issues: the predictive content is unstable over … forecasting variables before use. We thus cut-out the low frequency components and show, in simulations and on financial data …

alignment induces truth telling, i.e., respondents do not consciously lie, given the information they have processed. However … necessarily enough to induce consumers to process information and choose as they would if choices were realized with certainty … study the impact on attention, information processing, and choice. Consistent with our hypotheses, we find that as prob is …