L’évolution du marché des certificats de dépôt (CD) est assez étroitement liée à celle du marché interbancaire. Cet article met en évidence deux régimes de fixation des taux des CD qui peuvent coexister dans une certaine mesure : l’un où c’est le volume d’émission qui...

In this article we estimate a time-varying " natural " rate of interest (TVNRI) for a synthetic euro area over the period 1979Q1-2002Q4 using a small backward-looking macroeconomic model, broadly following a methodology developed by Laubach and Williams (2003) for the United States. The Kalman...

The Central Bank of Congo (BCC) lowered policy rate in response to uncertainty surrounding COVID-19. The impact of the pandemic on the economy is uncertain and depends on several factors. This cut in the policy rate would not help the economy to limit the fallout from COVID-19, so we should...

This article puts forward a framework based primarily on probabilistic tools to analyse the nature of housing loan cycles in France. The continued high growth rate of housing loans may indeed raise concerns as to the duration and determinants of the cycle which currently prevails. The results...

This article aims at estimating leading indicators of the American economy with financial variables. We use two types of hidden Markov chains models, a quantitative one (Krolzig (1997)) and a qualitative one (Gregoir and Lenglart (2000)). These models provide a robust and reliable framework to...

Aux États-Unis, l’information issue des séries financières, qui reflètent les anticipations des agents basées sur l’information économique disponible, permet de bien prévoir la survenance de retournements conjoncturels.

This paper presents a comparison of econometric models used for economic forecasting, focusing on Madagascar’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The models analyzed include OLS, ARIMA, ARIMAX and VAR, each with its advantages and limitations. The OLS model is selected for its robust performance...

This work examines the impact of social investments and poverty in the D.R.Congo. The general equilibrium approach was used. To this end, a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model was built and calibrated based on the 2013 Social Accounting Matrix. Three scenarios were considered...

This review presents the main tools and results of the research between finance and macroeconomics. The ambition of this literature is to provide a joint analysis of the business cycle and financial asset returns. This paper adopts this perspective and suggests a critical analysis of the...