The aim of this paper is to analyse whether the economic policy response capability was a relevant factor for minimizing the 2008 financial crisis severity within its first year. The research hypothesis is that countries with a larger space for expansionary policies have registered a less severe...

This paper shows estimates of the optimal level of foreign reserves for Brazil between the first quarter of 2004 and the third trimester of 2012, by applying the new Jeanne e Rancière (2011) framework, using different scenarios. The estimates of the optimal holdings of this asset are calculated...

This article estimates the stance of fiscal policy using the framework of conditional forecasting to evaluate the stance in Brazil since 1997. This indicator is measured as the deviation of forecast of the output gap conditional to the observed values and steady-state values of the instruments...

This paper shows estimates of the optimal level of foreign reserves for Brazil between the first quarter of 1998 and the same trimester of 2008, by applying the Jeanne e Ranciére (2006) framework, using different scenarios. We also estimate the fiscal costs of holding this asset, as well as the...

This paper studies the determination of the surpluses of the Brazilian central government. For quarterly data from 1996 through 2011, the empirical strategy included: i) structural break models and nonlinear estimates on the level of public debt, to handle the inertia after 1999, for high levels...

The issue of fiscal imbalance has become central to the current economic debate. A diagnostic Brazilian fiscal problem emphasizes that the rise in primary expenditure stems from "structural" factors, due to the growth of social security spending and social programs, resulting from the 1988...

This paper calculates the optimal monetary policy rule for Brazilian economy, assuming that monetary authority adopts a flexible inflation targeting regime in which, besides the inflation target, there is also a target for public debt/GDP ratio. According to the open economy proposed model, risk...

In the 1990s the idea that capital account liberalization represented a mechanism for disciplining the conduction of the monetary policy in the search for price stability was developed. Based on this argument a new version of Gruben e McLeod's (2001) model and an empirical analysis were made for...

The failure of Collor Plan in stabilizing the Brazilian economy, in March 1990, is a neglected area in Brazilian economics. The liquidity blockade involving the majority of financial assets reduced inflation rates substantially, from 70% per month to 10% per month, but it rose again gradually to...

The development of the process for liberalization and integration of the domestic markets on relation to the international markets along the last decades and the increasing volatility of capital flows resulted in the necessity of a higher coordination between fiscal and monetary policies. After...