ABSTRACT This paper develops and simulates a model of a Bayesian market maker who transacts with noise and position traders in derivative markets. The impact of noise trading is examined relative to price determination in FX futures, noise transmission from futures to options, and...

This paper develops and simulates a model of a Bayesian market maker who transacts with noise and position traders in derivative markets. The impact of noise trading is examined relative to price determination in FX futures, noise transmission from futures to options, and risk-management...

This paper compares the price forecasts of auction market participants against survey respondents based on EPA's emerging Special Allowance Reserve auction conducted at the Chicago Board of Trade. The results of the paper suggest that survey-based price forecasts have tended to be quot;in the...