This study extends the traditional set of central bank's interventions to include official announcements in order to provide empirical evidence on two pivotal questions: i) are FX authorities able to influence market expectations with different instruments? ii) how should interventions be...

We study the forecasting of future realized volatility in the stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets, as well as the continuous sample path and jump components of this, from variables in the information set, including implied volatility backed out from option prices. Recent nonparametric...

This paper deals with statistics' and econometrics' properties of fractionally integrated GARCH (FIGARCH). We compare these characteristics with those of traditional models. We insist on the GARCH exponential/IGARCH infinite decrease of volatility impact. Then, we apply it on three Tunisian...

We address the issue of foreign exchange risk and its macroeconomic determinants in several new EU members. The joint distribution of excess returns in the foreign exchange market and the observable macroeconomic factors is modeled using the stochastic discount factor (SDF) approach and a...

Complex interactions between fundamentals and liquidity during unstable periods in financial markets are succinctly modeled with coordination games. We propose a flexible framework to estimate such a model and use the efficient method of moments as estimation procedure. We illustrate the model...

In this paper, we apply the alternative long-horizon regression approach proposed by Fisher and Seater (1993) to study the long-run relationship between nominal exchange rates and fundamentals. We find evidence supporting the explanatory power of exchange rate models. In particular, the...

Almost all relevant literature has characterized implied volatility as a biased predictor of realized volatility. This paper provides new time series techniques to assess the validity of this finding within a foreign exchange market context. We begin with the empirical observation that the...

This paper explores the presence and characteristics of the asymmetric return-volatility relationship (i.e. asymmetric volatility) in bilateral exchange rates and trade weighted indices (TWI). We find evidence of asymmetric volatility in daily realized volatilities of AUD, GBP, and JPY against...

The relative out-of-sample forecasting quality of symmetric and asymmetric conditional volatility models of an exchange rate differs according to the symmetric and asymmetric evaluation criteria. Both symmetric and asymmetric forecast competitors of currency volatility are biased and...

This paper looks at issues surrounding the testing of fractional integration and nonlinearity in relation to the forward exchange rate anomaly of Fama (1984). Recent tests for fractional integration and nonlinearity are discussed and used to investigate the behaviour of three exchangerates and...