The aim of this paper is to analyze the sensitivity of Value at Risk (VaR) with respect to portfolio allocation. We derive analytical expresssions for the first and second derivatives of the Value at Risk, and explain how they can be used to simplify statistical inference and to perform a loval...

We investigate in this paper the attitudes towards risk of bettors in British horse races. The model we use allows us to go beyond the expected utility framework and to explore various alternative proposals by estimating a multinomial model on a 34443-race dataset. We find that rank-dependent...

This paper estimates the probability distribution of budgets, revenues, returns and profits to G-, PG-, PG13-, and R-rated movies. The distributions are non-Gaussian and show a self-similar stable Paretian form with non-finite variance and non-stationary mean.

This paper investigates the Bayesian decision-theoretic foundations of the Wall Street adage that `timing is everything'. One might think that a `small' risk-neutral trader wishes to act immediately upon any private information he possesses. I begin with a counterintuitive nding that trade...

Firms regularly introduce new, non-patentable products and innovations. When the possibility of a new product or an innovation arises to a potential seller, the seller faces a risk in successfully creating and producing a new product that consumers value above its costs. This framework enables a...

Standard decision theoretic models take as given that agents have perfect self-awareness; they have complete knowledge of thier own abilities. In the first part of the paper we combine philosophical and empirical arguments to attack the perfect awareness assumption. In the second part we ask...

Maximizing the probability of bypassing an aspiration level, and taking increasing risks to recover previous losses are well-documented behavioral tendencies. They are compatible with individual utility functions that are S-shaped, as suggested in Prospect Theory (Kahneman and Tversky 1979). We...

The aim of this paper is to test the performance of the standard version of CAPM in an evolutionary framework. We imagine a heterogeneous population of long-lived agents who invest their wealth according to differential porfolio rules and ask what is the fate of those who happen to behave as...

Numerous laboratory studies find that minor nuances of presentation and description change behavior in ways that are inconsistent with standard economic models. How much do these context effects matter in natural settings, when consumers make large, real decisions and have the opportunity to...

In this paper we suggest a new interpretation of non-additive probabilities. We study a decision-maker who follows the Savage axioms. We show the if (s)he is able to take unobservable actions which influence the probabilities of outcomes then it can appear to an outsider as if the his/her...