Showing 1 - 10 of 45
We present estimates of the term structure of inflation expectations, derived from an affine model of real and nominal yield curves. The model features stochastic covariation of inflation with the real pricing kernel, enabling us to extract a time-varying inflation risk premium. We fit the model...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005526293
We present evidence that fluctuations in the aggregate balance sheets of financial intermediaries forecast exchange rate returns - at weekly, monthly, and quarterly frequencies, both in and out of sample, and for a large set of countries. We estimate prices of risk using a cross-sectional,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005420495
In a market-based financial system, banking and capital market developments are inseparable, and funding conditions are closely tied to fluctuations in the leverage of market-based financial intermediaries. Offering a window on liquidity, the balance sheet growth of broker-dealers provides a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005420527
This paper models the impact of arbitrageurs on stock prices when arbitrageurs are uncertain about the drift of the dividend process of a risky asset. Under perfect information, the presence of risk-neutral arbitrageurs unambiguously reduces the volatility of asset returns. When arbitrageurs are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005420543
We define CoVaR as the value at risk (VaR) of financial institutions conditional on other institutions being in distress. The increase of CoVaR relative to VaR measures spillover risk among institutions. We estimate CoVaR using quantile regressions and document significant CoVaR increases among...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005420551
We decompose the time series of equity market risk into short- and long-run volatility components. Both components have negative and highly significant prices of risk in the cross section of equity returns. A three-factor model with the market return and the two volatility components compares...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005420566
The current financial crisis has highlighted the growing importance of the "shadow banking system," which grew out of the securitization of assets and the integration of banking with capital market developments. This trend has been most pronounced in the United States, but it has had a profound...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004967572
Pierret (2015) presents empirical analysis of the solvency-liquidity nexus for the banking system, documenting that a shock to the level of banks’ solvency risk is followed by lower short-term debt. Conversely, higher short-term debt Granger-causes higher solvency risk. These results point...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011241660
In the conduct of monetary policy, there exists a risk-return trade-off between financial conditions and financial stability, which complements monetary policy’s traditional trade-off between inflation and real activity. The trade-off exists even if monetary policy does not target financial...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010892318
A 2012 paper by Goodhart, Kashyap, Tsomocos, and Vardoulakis (GKTV) proposes a dynamic general equilibrium framework that provides a conceptual—and to some extent quantitative—framework for the analysis of macroprudential policies. The distinguishing feature of GKTV’s paper relative to any...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011027214