This chapter has described tools to improve forecasting of trends and of the effects of interventions. Among these … methods, role playing and rule-based forecasting have seldom been used lot environmental forecasting. Role playing is … appropriate when forecasting the outcome of a situation involving conflict among various parties. Rule-based forecasting is …

the commitment of International Journal of Forecasting to replication research. In addition the study examines procedures … forecasting methods.On the negative side, FHMM does not fully describe the conditions under which one might expect a given …

Interesting and difficult sales forecasting problems are common. Will the 1998 Volkswagen Beetle be a success? Will the …

reduce forecast errors for all types of forecasting problems. Methods: Findings from our review of forecasting experiments … relatively simple evidence-based forecasting methods. One of those methods, knowledge models, provides substantial improvements … mining, neural nets, and “big data analytics”—are unsuited for forecasting. Originality: Three new checklists for choosing …

Forecasting is concerned with making statements about the as yet unknown. There are many ways that people go about … contrast the accuracy of alternative methods.Evidence about forecasting procedures has been codified as condition … alternative forecasting methods. Interestingly, the empirical evidence sometimes conflicts with common beliefs about how to …

The field of forecasting is concerned with making statements about matters that are currently unknown. The terms … "forecast," "prediction," "projections," and "prognosis" are interchangeable as commonly used. Forecasting is also concerned …

forecasting procedures. None of the alarming forecasts were accurate. Governments took action in 23 of the analogous situations …

In recent decades, much comparative testing has been conducted to determine which forecasting methods are more …-based forecasting, and causal methods. Among causal methods, use econometrics when prior knowledge is strong, data are reliable, and few …