Stocks with large increases in call implied volatilities over the previous month tend to have high future returns while stocks with large increases in put implied volatilities over the previous month tend to have low future returns. Sorting stocks ranked into decile portfolios by past call...

This paper examines derivatives use of foreign exchange, interest rate and commodities risk by non-financial firms across multiple industries, using data from 1995 to 2001. This paper considers the interaction of a firm's risk exposures, derivatives use, and real operations simultaneously, and...

The literature has so far focused on the risk-return tradeoff in equity markets and ignored alternative risky assets. This paper is the first to examine the presence and significance of an intertemporal relation between expected return and risk in the foreign exchange market. The paper provides...

This paper presents a study of extreme interest rate movements in the U.S. Federal Funds market over almost a half century of daily observations from the mid 1950s through the end of 2000. We analyze the fluctuations of the maximal and minimal changes in short term interest rates and test the...

The literature has so far focused on the risk-return tradeoff in equity markets and ignored alternative risky assets. This paper is the first to examine the presence and significance of an intertemporal relation between expected return and risk in the foreign exchange market. The paper provides...

This paper introduces a conditional extreme value volatility estimator (EVT) based on high-frequency returns. The relative performance of the extreme value volatility estimator is compared with the discrete-time GARCH and implied volatility models for 1-day and 20-day-ahead forecasts of realized...

The literature has so far focused on the risk-return tradeoff in equity markets and ignored alternative risky assets. This paper examines the presence and significance of an intertemporal relation between expected return and risk in the foreign exchange market. The paper provides new evidence on...

This paper presents a comprehensive study of continuous time GARCH modeling with the thin-tailed normal and the fat-tailed Student-t and generalized error distributions. The paper measures the degree of mean reversion in stock return volatility based on the relationship between discrete time...

This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the short-term interest-rate dynamics based on three different data sets and two flexible parametric specifications. The significance of nonlinearity in the short-rate drift declines with increasing maturity for the interest-rate series used in the...

We derive a measure of aggregate systemic risk, designated CATFIN, that complements bank-specific systemic risk measures by forecasting macroeconomic downturns six months into the future using out-of-sample tests conducted with US, European and Asian bank data. Consistent with bank...