Showing 1 - 10 of 145
In this paper we analyze the power of various indicators to predict growth rates of aggregate production using real-time data. In addition, we assess their ability to predict turning points of the economy. We consider four groups of indicators: survey data, composite indicators, real economic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010273164
-time data. In addition, we assess their ability to predict recessions. We consider four groups of indicators: survey data …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005037627
In this paper we analyze the power of various indicators to predict growth rates of aggregate production using real-time data. In addition, we assess their ability to predict turning points of the economy. We consider four groups of indicators: survey data, composite indicators, real economic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005566178
Auftriebskräfte für die Konjunktur in Deutschland wieder stärkere Wirkung entfalten. Beschäftigung und Löhne werden wohl weiter … günstig, denn die Zinsen in Deutschland befinden sich auf einem historischen Tiefstand. Ein rasches Anzie-hen der Konjunktur …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011475094
Im Spätsommer 2013 gibt die Weltwirtschaft ein lange nicht mehr gekanntes Bild ab: Während sich die Konjunktur in den … Rahmenbedingungen und die sich andeutende Stabili-sierung der Konjunktur im übrigen Euroraum. Leicht gedämpft werden dürfte die …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011475099
We present evidence that global vectorautoregressive (GVAR) models produce significantly more accurate recession forecasts than country-specific time-series models in a Bayesian framework. This result holds for most countries and forecast horizons as well as for several country groups.
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010504670
In this paper we analyze the power of various indicators to predict growth rates of aggregate production using real-time data. In addition, we assess their ability to predict turning points of the economy. We consider four groups of indicators: survey data, composite indicators, real economic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012768391
We analyze what macroeconomic shocks affect the soundness of the German banking system and how this, in turn, feeds back into the macroeconomic environment. Recent turmoils on the international financial markets have shown very clearly that assessing the degree to which banks are vulnerable to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010299481
We analyze what macroeconomic shocks affect the soundness of the German banking system and how this, in turn, feeds back into the macroeconomic environment. Recent turmoils on the international financial markets have shown very clearly that assessing the degree to which banks are vulnerable to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003897348
We analyze what macroeconomic shocks affect the soundness of the German banking system and how this, in turn, feeds back into the macroeconomic environment. Recent turmoils on the international financial markets have shown very clearly that assessing the degree to which banks are vulnerable to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012989252