Global prediction of recessions

Jonas Dovern; Florian Huber

We present evidence that global vectorautoregressive (GVAR) models produce significantly more accurate recession forecasts than country-specific time-series models in a Bayesian framework. This result holds for most countries and forecast horizons as well as for several country groups.

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Year of publication:	March 5, 2015
Authors:	Dovern, Jonas ; Huber, Florian
Publisher:	Heidelberg : Univ., Dep. of Economics Heidelberg : Universitätsbibliothek der Universität Heidelberg
Subject:	GVAR \| recession forecast \| QPS \| probability forecast \| Internationale Wirtschaft \| International economy \| Konjunktur \| Business cycle \| Wirtschaftsprognose \| Economic forecast \| Prognoseverfahren \| Forecasting model \| VAR-Modell \| VAR model

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Extent:	1 Online-Ressource (circa 10 Seiten)
Series:	Discussion paper series / University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics. - Heidelberg : [Verlag nicht ermittelbar], ZDB-ID 2217357-2. - Vol. no. 585
Type of publication:	Book / Working Paper
Type of publication (narrower categories):	Arbeitspapier ; Working Paper ; Graue Literatur ; Non-commercial literature
Language:	English
Notes:	Systemvoraussetzungen: Acrobat Reader
Other identifiers:	hdl:10419/127402 [Handle]
Classification:	C53 - Forecasting and Other Model Applications ; E17 - Forecasting and Simulation ; E37 - Forecasting and Simulation ; F41 - Open Economy Macroeconomics ; F47 - Forecasting and Simulation
Source:	ECONIS - Online Catalogue of the ZBW

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010504670