Agents form expectations about the future in many markets, and these expectations drive investment and consumption behavior, inform entry and exit choices, and can even provide direct satisfaction or distress. How agents form expectations is therefore of central interest to economists. This...

We propose a simple short-cut to the problem of estimating endogenous peer effects from observed behavior: asking students about peers' ability and their own effort. Our survey evidence indicates that students believe in own-peer complementarities in educational production.

We examine the nature of stated subjective probabilities in a complex, evolving context in which true event probabilities are not within subjects' explicit information set. Specifically, we collect information on subjective expectations in a car race wherein participants must bet on a particular...

In this paper, we present and test the empirical implications of competing theories about how expectations of outcomes affect utility. In the first utility formulation, which is consistent with particular interpretations of disappointment, prospect theory and regret theory, individuals receive...

We examine the nature of stated subjective probabilities in a complex, evolving context in which true event probabilities are not within subjects' explicit information set. Specically, we collect information on subjective expectations in a car race wherein participants must bet on a particular...

In this paper we compare three theories of utility formation: prospect theory, regret theory, and a combination which additionally allows for direct utility flows from positive expectations. We then test which of these theories best explains actual connections between health and welfare over...

In 2020 and 2021, the world witnessed policies that caused enormous net damage to nearly every country. We demonstrate the usefulness of the new WELLBY currency in gauging the costs and benefits of COVID policies and review the contributions of Australian economists to the scholarly and public...

We examine the nature of stated subjective probabilities in a complex, evolving context in which true event probabilities are not within subjects' explicit information set. Specifically, we collect information on subjective expectations in a car race wherein participants must bet on a particular...