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DISAGREEMENT AMONG FORECASTERS IN G7 COUNTRIES
Dovern, Jonas; Fritsche, Ulrich; Slacalek, Jirka - European Central Bank - 2009
, consumption, investment and unemployment)has a distinct dynamic from disagreement about nominal variables(inflation and interest … series. Countryby-country regressions for inflation and interest... …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005866467
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Too many cooks? : the German joint diagnosis and its production
Fritsche, Ulrich; Heilemann, Ullrich - 2010
criticised. This study examines the JD’s growth and inflation forecasts from 1970 to 2007, including most of the contributions of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010425226
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New forecasting methods for an old problem : predicting 147 years of systemic financial crises
Plessis, Emile du; Fritsche, Ulrich - 2022
important variable. GDP per capita and consumer inflation have increased in prominence whereas debt-to-GDP, stock market and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013362692
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Growth and Inflation Forecasts for Germany : An Assessment of Accuracy and Dispersion
Fritsche, Ulrich; Döpke, Jörg - 2004
Based on a panel of German professional forecasts for 1970 to 2003 we find that growth and inflation forecasts are …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010260675
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Predicting recessions in Germany with boosted regression trees
Döpke, Jörg; Fritsche, Ulrich; Pierdzioch, Christian - 2015
We use a machine-learning approach known as Boosted Regression Trees (BRT) to reexamine the usefulness of selected leading indicators for predicting recessions. We estimate the BRT approach on German data and study the relative importance of the indicators and their marginal effects on the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011564967
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Disagreement among forecasters in G7 countries
Dovern, Jonas; Fritsche, Ulrich; Slacalek, Jiri - 2009
, consumption, investment and unemployment) has a distinct dynamic from disagreement about nominal variables (inflation and interest … nominal series. Country-by-country regressions for inflation and interest rates reveal that both the level of disagreement and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605128
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New forecasting methods for an old problem: Predicting 147 years of systemic financial crises
du Plessis, Emile; Fritsche, Ulrich - 2022
important variable. GDP per capita and consumer inflation have increased in prominence whereas debt-to-GDP, stock market and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013368847
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Forecast errors and the macroeconomy - a non-linear relationship?
Fritsche, Ulrich; Doepke, Joerg - 2006
The paper analyses reasons for departures from strong rationality of growth and inflation forecasts based on annual … evidence for such a non-linearity for inflation forecasts. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010420821
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Disagreement among Forecasters in G7 Countries
Dovern, Jonas; Fritsche, Ulrich; Slacalek, Jiri - 2009
nominal series. Country-by-country regressions for inflation and interest rates reveal that both the level of disagreement and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010420834
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Too Many Cooks? The German Joint Diagnosis and Its Production
Fritsche, Ulrich; Heilemann, Ullrich - 2010
criticised. This study examines the JD's growth and inflation forecasts from 1970 to 2007, including most of the contributions of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010420838