This paper investigates the intraday response of T-bond futures pricesto surprises in headline figures of U.S. macroeconomic reports. Analyzing thetime series properties and the information content of the macroeconomic newsflow, the paper seeks an answer to the question, what determines the...

Standard equity valuation approaches (i.e., DDM, RIM, and DCF) are derivedunder the assumption of ideal conditions, such as infinite payoffs and cleansurplus accounting. Since these conditions are hardly ever met, we provideextensions of the standard approaches based on the fundamental principle...

This paper delineates the simultaneous impact of non-anticipated information onmean and variance of the intraday return process by including appropriate variablesaccounting for the news flow into both the mean and the variance function. This allowsus to differentiate between the consistent price...

It is well documented that the U.S. employment report has a strong price impact in financial markets. Based of these precision proxies, we show that prices respond significantly stronger to more precise information, even after controlling for an asymmetric price response to ’good’ and ’bad’...

Preise auf Kapitalmärkten werden durch nicht-antizipierte Informationen getrieben. Eine zentrale Aussage Baysianischer Lernmodelle impliziert, dass die Stärke der Preisreaktion einerseits von der Höhe der nicht antizipierten Komponente abhängt, andererseits aber auch von der Präzision der...

Bayesian learning provides a core concept of information processing in financialmarkets. Typically it is assumed that market participants perfectly know the qual-ity of released news. However, in practice, news’ precision is rarely disclosed. Therefore, we extend standard Bayesian learning...

Standard equity valuation approaches (i.e., DDM, RIM, and DCF model) are derived under theassumption of ideal conditions, such as infinite payoffs and clean surplus accounting. Becausethese conditions are hardly ever met, we extend the standard approaches, based on thefundamental principle of...

Analysts providing more accurate earnings forecasts also issue moreprofitable recommendations. We demonstrate how investors can profit fromthis contemporaneous link by differentiating between “able” and “lucky”analysts. In line with previous studies, we find that past track records...

There is strong evidence that macroeconomic releases influence prices in financial markets. However, why do markets react to some announcements while they ignore others with a similar content? Based on a Bayesian learning model, we show that market impact is mainly determined by information...

An important claim of Bayesian learning and a standard assumption in price discovery models is that the strength of the price impact of unanticipated information depends on the precision of the news. In this paper, we test for this assumption by analyzing intra-day price responses of CBOT T-bond...