techniques for the nonaccelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) that have been fundamentally inconsistent with the …

Data for the G-7 countries strongly support the view that economic activity has a nonlinear effect on inflation, with … high levels of activity raising inflation by more than low levels decrease it. In the face of such asymmetries, the average … inflation to rise or fall, contrary to linear model predictions. One implication is that policymakers can raise the average …

.S. output-inflation process. The important policy implication of this asymmetry is that it can be very costly if the economy … overheats because this will necessitate a severe tightening in monetary conditions in order to re-establish inflation control …

This paper presents a basic plan for developing a Forecast and Policy Analysis System designed to support an inflation …