The recent literature on time series has developed a lot of models for the analysis of the dynamic conditional correlation, involving the same variable observed in different locations; very often, in this framework, the consideration of the spatial interactions are omitted. We propose to extend...

Recent econometric and statistical models for the analysis of volatility in financial markets serve the purpose of incorporating the effect of other markets in their structure, in order to study the spillover or the contagion phenomena. Extending the Multiplicative Error Model we are able to...

The empirical evidence behind the dynamics of high frequency based measures of volatility is that they exhibit persistence and at times abrupt changes in the average level by subperiods. In the past ten years this pattern has a clear interpretation in reference to the dot com bubble, the quiet...

The parametric model introduced by Lee and Carter in 1992 for projecting mortality rates in the US has been a seminal development and has been widely used since then. Different versions of the model, incorporating constraints on the data, and different adjustment methods have led to improvement....

In the last decades, the interest in the relationship between crime and business cycle has widely increased. It is a diffused opinion that a causal relationship goes from economic variables to criminal activities. This work aims to verify this proposition by using the dynamic factor model to...

This paper extends the VAR methodology to examine the consequences of monetary policy decisions by considering two types of nonlinearities in the determination of official interest rates - 1) the asymmetry related to the different nature of the discrete and infrequent positive and negative...

Mutual funds classifications, often made by rating agencies, are very common and sometimes criticized. In this work, a three-step statistical procedure for mutual funds classification is proposed. In the first step time series funds are characterized in terms of returns. In the second step, a...

The problem of forecasting financial time series has received great attention in the past, from both Econometrics and Pattern Recognition researchers. In this context, most of the efforts were spent to represent and model the volatility of the financial indicators in long time series. In this...

Financial time series are often characterized by similar volatility structures, often represented by GARCH processes. The detection of clusters of series displaying similar behavior could be important to understand the differences in the estimated processes, without having to study and compare...

The asset allocation decision is often considered as a trade-off between maximizing the expected return of a portfolio and minimizing the portfolio risk. The riskiness is evaluated in terms of variance of the portfolio return, so that it is fundamental to consider correctly the variance of its...