With regard to interest rate forecasts, earlier researchers have found mixed evidence of forecaster herding. Using the Livingston survey data, we reexamined the case for forecaster herding. We did not find evidence of forecaster herding. On the contrary, we found strong evidence of forecaster...

We use the Livingston survey data to study whether forecasters of the S&P 500 stock price index herd. Our results imply that forecasters do not herd. Rather, we find that forecasters anti-herd. Anti-herding is less prevalent among academics and Federal Reserve economists. Forecaster anti-herding...

We show that growth and unemployment forecasts submitted by individual FOMC members do not exhibit herding behavior, while the inflation forecasts show strong evidence of anti-herding. Interestingly, anti-herding is more important for non-voting members than for voters.

Based on the approach advanced by Elliott et al. [Elliott, G., Komunjer, I., Timmermann, A., 2005. Estimation and testing of forecast rationality under flexible loss. Review of Economic Studies 72, 1107–1125], we studied whether the inflation and output growth projections published by the...

We suggest a simple test of whether an inflation target anchors private-sector inflation expectations. The test is easy to compute and it is robust to various sources of misspecification. The test may be a useful alternative to dispersion measures commonly studied in research on inflation...

Using forecasts of exchange rates of the Brazilian real and the Mexican peso against the US dollar, we analyze the symmetry of the loss function of exchange-rate forecasters and the rationality of their forecasts. Symmetry of the loss function can be rejected for some forecasters but not all....

We analyze more than 20,000 forecasts of nine metal prices at four different forecast horizons. We document that forecasts are heterogeneous and report that anti-herding appears to be a source of this heterogeneity. Forecaster anti-herding reflects strategic interactions among forecasters that...

We study whether forecasts of the rate of change of the price of oil are rational. To this end, we consider a model that allows the shape of forecasters’ loss function to be studied. The shape of forecasters’ loss function may be consistent with a symmetric or an asymmetric loss function. We...

Given that the prices of gold and silver have witnessed large and substantial swings in recent years, policymakers and investors need readily available and reliable forecasts of the prices of these two precious metals. Survey data of forecasts of the prices of gold and silver provide a...

Based on the approach advanced by Elliott et al. (Rev. Ec. Studies. 72, 1197-1125), we found that the loss function of a sample of oil price forecasters is asymmetric in the forecast error. Our findings indicate that the loss oil price forecasters incurred when their forecasts exceeded the price...